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Erdogan's visit to Helsinki and the Cyprus thorn
by Thanos Kalamidas
2010-10-21 08:47:15 |
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The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is touring around Europe waving the results of the latest referendum in Turkey and expecting the European to reward his effect for a change with promises for a future EU full membership. That’s the one side the other side is that the Turkish Prime Minister knows well that the Cypriot thorn has become much more than an Achilles heal to the Turkish European dreams and the more time spent without a solution the more further away the European highway looks.
The last two days we saw the Turkish Prime Minister in Helsinki which actually marks the first visit of a Turkish prime minister to the Finnish capital the last thirty-two years; actually it marks the Turkish desperation for allies especially after the latest EU decision for direct trade with Northern Cyprus. Friends and allies is something Turkey needs in Europe and things lately don’t help. Merkel had often targeted the Turkish minority in Germany and she was the first to talk about a non member relationship with privileges something that the Turks strongly reject. France had never been a strong Turkish membership supporter and Sarkozy is following Chirac’s policy regarding Turkey, keep them in the hall way for the eternity.
Belgium, Holland and Denmark have changed a lot the last few years and with Austria in the club they don’t feel comfortable with a Turkish membership mainly scared of the waves of Turks that might decide that an EU passport opens new possibilities in countries that have already problem with immigration. In Italy it is Berlusconi but when you have Berlusconi for an ally you don’t need foes and Britain has always been an ally due to purely geopolitical reasons and not because they really feel as allies. After all Britain keeping away from the Maastricht treaty has made sure that not all the EU laws including immigrants movement applies in British soil. So for Cameron and every British government the last thirty years help to Turkey is just another diplomacy game.
The easts European have been always suspicious to a Turkish membership and that’s why Turkish diplomacy has kept diplomatically away from them. Some of them have still alive memories from the Ottoman Empire period and they find it difficult to forget. Spaniards and Portuguese are positive but the same time is in stand by motion waiting to see how the northerners will react. For most of them Turkey looked very attractive the last three decades as the hundred million people market but then two things made them more careful, first of all the political situation with the army in a very dark role often making things very complicate for trade and then the real trade market of the Turkish people who doesn’t seem to be in the levels of other nations even African or south American.
Oddly what is left to the Turks is Greece – which is not exactly an encouraging sign – and the Greek support depends a lot in the Turkish behaviour to a series of issues including the disputes in the Aegean sea and of course the Cyprus issue. And of course the other possible allies in the effect for a membership are the Scandinavians; but here the problems have a different dimension. Sweden traditionally has been very sensitive to human rights issues and the Turkish record regarding human rights is probably Europe’s worst by far. Finland from the other side is more flexible, without having a critical vote in the EU decision making centres can be a good ally as long Finnish products – including army products – find their way in the Turkish market and in the situation Turkey’s membership has fallen at the moment any ally is a good ally and a visit of a Turkish Prime minister the first after thirty-two years is worth its money. At least here in Finland Erdogan knows that he will face some soft criticism but mostly he will find a friendly solder to cry and complain that despite all his effects the other Europeans don’t seem to appreciate him and his country.
The truth is that under the rule of Recep Tayyip Erdogan a lot of things have change in Turkey and hopefully after the latest referendum to do the necessary constitutional changes much more will change; furthermore a victory at the coming election for the Turkish parliament will establish Erdogan as the man who brought Turkey to the 21st century. This is great for the Turkish republic and the Turkish people but it is not enough for an EU membership, and they might satisfy the geopolitical margins of the British government but they will never suppression the fears of the British, French, German public and the British, French and German elect the governments and whatever we say politicians take in serious account public opinion. So Turkey has a long way before persuading the European public that they can be EU members.
And then it is the Cypriot thorn. Leaving apart that there was an invasion and there is an occupation in European soil leaving Europeans numb in front of the problem, Turkey has complicate the situation as much Israel complicated the situation in the Gaza strip the last three decades. Since 1974 nearly a hundred thousands settlers have moved from the further east and poorest sides of Turkey armed with a lot of nationalism, plenty of money and endless promises for life in paradise to Northern Cyprus. These people were moved there to establish a new reality and they have creating more problems to Turkey than to any other in long term. Most of them already second generation enjoying the endless funding and support from mother Turkey soppy from a blind chauvinism are not willing to do any compromises creating problems not only to the negotiations for a united Cyprus but also to the Turkish minority that lived in Cyprus for centuries since suddenly they reduce the real minority into a second class citizens.
Of course there negotiations under the observation and supervise of the United Nations for a united Cyprus and these negotiations go on for the last thirty years but that doesn’t change the fact that there is a Turkish occupation army in Cyprus, a nation full member in European Union with veto in the Turkish candidacy for membership. So what is northern Cyprus? Part of a country member or a foreign soil inside Europe? Very correctly the EU decided that in trade relations with northern Cyprus they cannot follow procedures of direct trading but doing it through the legal and EU member Cypriot government. Another pressure for Erdogan who sees the small island, a group of settlers, blind chauvinism and mistakes of the past becoming the brakes of Turkish European ambitions.
I have often repeat the issue of the Turkish chauvinism but nationalism and chauvinism is the characteristic of all Turkish political parties despite their position in the Turkish political spectrum. You see having the army for decades playing the puppeteer behind the curtains of the Turkish politics and with a threat of a military dictatorship – something that unfortunately the Turkish army practiced often even the last decades – then nationalism becomes case of survival from every Turkish politician and anything beyond this nationalism and chauvinism becomes punishable treason literally. Even Erdogan has personal experience of the punishment serving time in prison. So now we are not just talking about the Achilles heal but the danger to lose both legs.
The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visit to Helsinki doesn’t only mark the first visit of a Turkish Prime Minister the last thirty-two years but the desperation of the Turkish diplomacy in front a European dream that looks day after day further and further away.
Ovi+Europe Cyprus Thanos_Kalamidas Europe Ovi Turkey EU |
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