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Iran on the edge
by Thanos Kalamidas
2009-08-10 09:36:11
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It might sound surreal and weird, but is the endorsement of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad by Iran’s supreme leader Ayotallah Ali Khamenei and the rest of the clerics’ regime a sign that the end has begun and that the protestors and the opposition has won? I suppose that Ahmadinejad’s predecessors; Khatami and Rafsanjani didn’t attend the ceremony of his …installation as the President of Iran. This might be another sign.

The Iranian presidential role is more the role of a puppet and he’s there for decoration; the real decision makers are the ayotallahs, whatever Ahmadinejad says or his predecessors liked to believe. It is like a PR representative with extended powers, he can open schools and make fancy military speeches, and the rest comes from behind closed doors and secretive cleric councils. Of course Ahmadinejad doesn’t participate in the councils; he’s more likely outside in the hall waiting to hear about the decisions. On the same time the ayotallahs are in direct connection with Allah – always according to them – and their decisions are infallible.

Then Ahmadinejad comes out with all his prejudice and often racist theatrics, and there we have the line of Iran’s foreign policy! But comparing Ahmadinejad’s theatrics and Rafsanjani’s reverse, or Khatami’s often contemporary understanding, you can see the change. From a reverse and conservative, often introvert Iranian policy founded by Ayotallah Khomeini, we end up in hysterics with Ayotallah Ali Khamenei who sees enemies everywhere and himself as the courier of Allah.

What’s next? I’m afraid that history has taught us that things get worse before they get better, and in this case worse means blood and the blood of innocent Iranians. Except - and this is the scary bit - if the Ayotallahs’ regime escapes to where Saddam escaped in the past; when his internal problems started piling up it led to war. Unfortunately, Iran has created all necessary excuses for something like that over the last decades, and not only with its neighbours, but with far away foes like the USA and the EU. Iran made another mistake that started with Khomeini. They proved to everybody that an oil partner can’t be trusted, by forcing old partners to look for other solutions, including Iraq. When the Iraqi investments started to seem dangerous, they preferred to risk an invasion rather than to negotiate with Iran. That means that Iran lost its only negotiating card, and after the invasion the far away foe became their …neighbour!  

The opposition – Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi – are not planning to overthrow the Ayotallahs. They want to return to the good old days with a conservative leadership, one that can be accepted internationally and rule the country without all the hysterics and threats. They realize that if they could return to that reality then even nuclear factories could become acceptable and Iran could become an energy power in the region. This is a region that nowadays needs more power than oil can offer. Actually, if the plan had worked, it would have turned into a goldmine for Iran. But it didn’t, thanks to Ayotallah Ali Khamenei and his puppet, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Despite his puppet role, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has proved to be a dangerous player. In his mania to show his loyalty to the Ayotallahs, he is taking everything one step further. The Ayotallahs’ hate of Israel for example, is becoming a very dangerous threat for the destruction of a nation. The Ayotallahs’ comment on internal independence and their right to energy resources became a nuclear bomb threat and unfortunately, people are listening from every side. There is always somebody who is looking for enemies in Israel, which apparently has nuclear weapons, and there is a public that blindly follows the Ayotallahs’ regime in Iran ready to destroy and kill.

Iran is on the edge this moment, a very dangerous edge. Unfortunately all the elements of the ruling clerics are dangerous, even the puppet. The protests will continue and there are many ways to protest, not only by marching in the streets. The Iranian people have found all the ways lately, and the regime will continue to react violently and hysterically, with uncontrollable results for all sides. Let’s hope that this is the beginning of the end, and not the end of the beginning!


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