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Where the economy headed Where the economy headed
by Joseph Gatt
2022-01-07 09:24:27
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I think what COVID did was prune the dead wood. That is those industries that were not being productive but kept producing now have a pretext to halt production and shut down.

Those industries that were healthy and knew where they were heading are going to keep producing; start investing in new markets, and take over the old markets that were held by unproductive economies.

But the new economic order needs to be one where industries don't waste money and energy on projects that are not productive. A lot of industries stayed afloat without being productive because they had easy access to credit and money, and were cooking the books so people in the industry could keep their jobs. And that's a dangerous move in case we face new pandemic times.

econ0001_400People now know that you can't keep a job in environments were the present is bleak and the future is even bleaker. People should be conscious that they need to work for viable industries where their future is safe and clear. But tensions in the job market sometimes mean you need to keep your job regardless of how shady the industry you operate in is.

The first consequence of COVID will be massive unemployment. And the kind of unemployment where people are cash-strapped and need to find a job fast. Not the kind of unemployment where people previously held jobs and have enough savings that they can seek training or take their time travelling before they find a new job.

So, after the pandemic, you are going to have massive unemployment numbers, and the kind of people whose life depends on getting a job. So you're going to have to find them work fast. The United States decided to invest in massive infrastructure projects that should absorb a good chunk of the unemployment. But most countries don't have the means to start such projects and are going to have to find ways to employ such people.

People need jobs where the cash flows quickly, so, at first, people might avoid jobs such as agriculture where you need to wait for the harvest to earn your paycheck. People are going to need monthly paychecks, which is why the government is probably going to have to hire as many people as they can and give them paychecks, and wait for the economy to get fixed before people can invest in agriculture or industry where the cash flows more slowly.

Small trading jobs should also be a government priority. So the government is going to have to allow small peddlers and salesmen to make a living, because such peddlers need their daily cash flow to survive. So governments are going to have to do away with regulation banning the sales of products in the streets or in markets.

The rest is all about information and action. Researchers should be able to identify sectors that need economic inflow and output, and are going to have to inform people and find people to fill those gaps in the economy.

So government agencies or private research centers should be able to map the economy, find what sectors have a labor and production shortage, and invite people to fill those gaps. This needs to be done on a permanent basis so people can shift around and move around the economy.

The service sector is the main sector that's going to go through a lot of remodeling. Before COVID, you had a service sector where all kinds of services that were not viable were being offered, and that caused a lot of waste in the service sector. So the service sector should be minimalist. Think plumbers and electricians, not Halloween makeup artists who think they are going to find work all year when Halloween only happens once a year.

Real estate is going to be the big factor. Families are getting smaller. People need more individual space. People no longer live collectively. The economy's going to need to use more single-bedroom apartments, and fewer family apartments as family size is shrinking, and even teenagers want to live in their own place these days. Single-bedroom apartments are going to have to be modeled to fit all the needs of people who live in those places. More space, more facilities, easier access to shopping venues and the like.

But the price factor is going to be important in the economy. You're going to need housing that reflects purchasing power, so affordable housing means there's going to have to be a bigger supply is single-bedroom apartments, and a smaller supply of larger housing to accommodate families. Otherwise people are going to be paying for overpriced housing with the kind of space that they don't really need.

Now infrastructure is going to be important. Bridges, roads, ports, public transportation, construction, those are going to be key sectors. People need the comfortable lives they deserve, but infrastructure needs to be updated for the economy to flow. People don't really trade in places where you can't drive on the roads.

Finally information is going to have to flow. Buyers can't find sellers and sellers can't find buyers. So you're going to need to kind of websites where you just type what you need and find the kind of services that can be provided at a fee. You make your own choices from there.


     
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