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The Prelude to Putin's Power Play The Prelude to Putin's Power Play
by Bohdan Yuri
2021-05-08 07:10:55
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On April 22nd, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shogun declared the maneuvers in Krim and western Russia a success. All troops would be returned to their permanent bases by May 1st.

However, he also included that they should leave their heavy weapons behind in western Russia for another exercise later this year; ready to respond to any "adverse developments" during NATO's Defender Europe 2021 exercise. And therein lies the rub, it's not over. This was only a Prelude to Putin's Play for Ukraina.

put001_400The Staging:

Aside from practicing for the future, these exercises showed the Western Powers that Russia is indeed capable of addressing its military operations spot on with little effort and with overwhelming force. But what else was the true purpose.

It was multi-fold: To show the strength, readiness, and will to act for Russia's interest". anywhere and everywhere that Russian citizens live.

Let's remember, this Prelude had started years ago by accelerating Russian citizenship for all Donbas residents, replacing the normal 8 year waiting period with 3 months. Presently, the overwhelming majority of Donbas residents are now Russian Citizens with Russian Passports, just like Krim. They are the most vital characters to THE PLAY.

So, what else did this show of force do --- it revealed the extent to which the West would possibly respond to such actions: To the effect of a few warships sent to the Black Sea weeks after and a wide "concern" over the troop movements.

And Russia found out that they could actually prevent the US from sending a destroyer to the Black Sea just by telling them not to come --- flyovers, the same. Thank you for the info"..

Oh, and the West's welcomed relief when the pullout was announced: It was just a bluff, nothing too serious, let's hope the bear hibernates again. It's just war games"..(How do armies prepare for real wars?) Count the many similar takeovers by Russia throughout the world. Wagner's opera plays everywhere. Libya is already falling into the trend as will others.

But getting back to Donbas, we will see the troops return. My guess is after the May celebrations. By which time Russia will probably succeed in causing a military flare-up to give reasons for Russian Troops to move in to save the Russian Citizens.... And yes a bombing of festivities by Russian saboteurs is always a typical Russian option, blame the other side. But this time I think that Putin will introduce a new version. He will have to ad-lib the approach.

The Play:

I think that probably around, or after, the May celebration the citizens of Donbas will issue a (pseudo) "legal" Proclamation that they will indeed annex their combined republics from Ukraina and henceforth allow Russian troops within their newly formed country.

The wording will be all important, although I'm not sure if it can be made reasonable enough for hesitative doubt on the West's next action. But any delay buys time and time buys consideration. I assume Russian troops will have by then returned to their April status along the borders for that reason.

Russia will then claim the "Legal" aspect of the LPR/DPR Proclamation to allow Russia to openly move Russian Soldiers into Donbas for its Russian Citizens' protection"..and the request would come from the LPR/DPR (Republics).

Putin has already referred to Luhansk and Donetsk as "Republics". Next will come the official recognition by Russia.

Now, here comes the call card --- What will the West do if that happens? Will they counter by bringing Allied troops into Ukraina. Is that what the NATO exercises are for?

No, they won't do any of that. Putin already knows what they'll do. They'll send a few warships weeks after and everyone from the Pope on down will express deep concern. Sanctions?". Only if The World stops buying energy from Russia will they work. Never gonna happen.

Putin's bluff may or may not be real but which Western Leader would dare send troops at a moment's notice if Russian troops openly "Walked" into Donbas, through an invitation. I think May 10th --- 21st will tell. (When does muddy season end in Donbas?)

No, the only "weapon" then left for the West is to protest within legal diplomatic methods: the UN, The Hague and other stuff. And all the while Russian troops would still be in Ukraine. And we know how that goes. We'll get used to it just like we do now.

So, what's left then for Ukraina and Donbas, another permanent entry from the mold: Ossetia, Moldova, East Libya, you name it? Unfortunately, the real danger of war will still be there for one reason only --- Water! The Donbas/Krim crisis would slip away into the shadows on Russia's part except for that.

Krim, the land and its people, are in danger of dying from lack of water. That and that alone would be the reason for Russia to initiate a land war. And for that, history and I would clearly point the blame on Putin's simple lack of thought.

Four years of dismantling Donbas' and Krim's infrastructure for the military and greed and not once was a thought to build for posterity, prosperity, and well-being. Instead of a nuclear arsenal why not a desalinization plant, China could probably build one in six months if it had to. Instead of greedy Nord 2 why not a water pipeline across the Kerch Strait. These two simple things could have avoided a war that will probably be inevitable. If Putin had only become humane.

No, Putin's plans are simple-minded, focused on Power and Greed; there's no room for empathy. His only traits deal with killing and acquiring, not leading --- Poison all enemies! And so it will be that a war will or will not pop up in the near future, in the near abroad. Then the Real Games will begin: who will bluff and who will challenge?

We as a whole allow our worst people to sometimes lead us astray and we follow whatever they say. What say you, World?

curtain!


     
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