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Do NOT Carry On, Boris Do NOT Carry On, Boris
by Thanos Kalamidas
2020-12-12 11:21:16
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For the last twenty years at least, there are a lot of wrong-doings to blame the EU leadership, still you can never blame them for lack of cynic pragmatism or strong self preservation even against a member state of the Union. Best example Greece.

Back in 2015 and while the Greek PM Alexis Tsipras was reinsuring the Greek people that negotiations regarding cuts for the Greek debt looked hopeful and in the worst case scenario Greece would leave eurozone creating chaos and taking with her the rest of the members plus the new currency into a black hole, the EU leadership was quietly and steadily getting ready. The EU banks were getting ready, major private cooperations were getting ready under the observation of the EU bureaucrats and member states’ economies were getting ready under the guidance of Brussels.

boreu001_400Brussels, - under the German leadership - was unveiling plan B, plan C to plan Z while Greece had only one plan. Blackmail a cut, an exit from the crisis without paying. But then, the very last hours and after months of playing chicken and dare, reality came; a national bankruptcy, the total loss of the national sovereignty and the fall of ten million people into poverty. Greece was defeated and unconditionally surrender to Brussels with a new moratorium, even harder than the last ones.

Looking back I have the strong feeling that Alexis Tsipras first of all underestimated the power of the bureaucracy in Brussels. For them  to have long prepared different and a variety of plans and the power to activate them simultaneously and immediately. This also shows a certain amount of arrogance.

Secondly – and this again shows even more arrogance – Tsipras thought that he could blackmail some of the biggest European economies with …murder-suicide. You either give me what I want or I'll take you all with me.

And last, time worked for Brussels and not for Athens. This short of blackmails work in the first few hours, not after six months of playing around often nonsense delays.

For obvious reason I watched the whole thing closely but I’m sure most Europeans also followed the situation unveiling every single night in front of them thoughgh local news and tens of special reports. I suppose Boris also watched it. Or at least I hoped he did. And learnt something!

Obviously he didn’t. Is like watching history repeating itself in a very twisted way only this time is not already powerless and poor Greece but delusional Great Britain.

First of all and just like Tsipras, Boris thinks that he plays poker, chicken and dare with EU. He is wrong. He might play poker but they play chess and they are far ahead of him in moves. Even concerning the fisheries, French, Belgian, Irish, Dutch and Scandinavian fleets are ready to block the British fishermen to the struggling point and the threat of the British navy defending British waters is just for the local Brexiteers with no value. Actually and regarding the fisheries’ rights, it is Boris who should literally beg for a deal and not EU. EU controls the North Sea and the Atlantic. Britain only controls six miles into the channel. This is also British navy's limits.

Secondly, Boris thinks that he can blackmail the EU with the power of the good old Empire, i.e. the Commonwealth of Nations. This would have been an excellent argument and pressure point if we were back in 1960s even in 1970s. We are NOT!

Australia, Canada and India enjoy very favourable trade deals with EU they would hardly upset by playing political games but it is the African and the South Asian members of the Commonwealth that will definitely keep long distances from Boris wishes. Most of them use 'euro' currency instead of the pound or the dollar, for their foreign exchanges. Their economy is partly depended from EU. In absolutely no way they are going to side Boris or let EU suspect that they will play Boris’ games. All of them obey EU rules, rules Boris want to be "free" of and on the contrary eforce EU with his trade-rules. So coming to Commonwealth nations most have already made sure that EU knows where they stand and is somewhere Boris will not like it.

Boris also tries to shadow project the image of the fearless 6th biggest economy in the world and the 7th strongest army. Both questionable under contemporary crisis and circumstances. And while the economic distance between Germany (4th biggest) and Great Britain is HUGE, the distance between the British and the French (5th) economy is …tiny. Both leading members of the EU. Something similar, oddly with the same actors in reverse positions, plays with the armies as well.

And never forget, Boris secret card has always been …Donald Trump. Well, not only Trump is over for good but the new president, Joe Biden, is not so happy with a no-deal Brexit, especially when it comes with the Irish boarder.

And last, time worked for Brussels and not for London. Brussels had the time to prepare and activate plan A, plan B all the way to plan Z. That while Boris was boycotting Theresa May or when he was arguing with his own cabinet and his own negotiators. These short of gables work only the first hour, days. After two years doesn’t matter.

One way or another, you can't Carry On Boris! Find a way to compromise!


          
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