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What will happen after the Iranian elections... Is there anything new? What will happen after the Iranian elections... Is there anything new?
by Abdullah A. Ali Sallam
2013-07-03 10:49:29
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Last week Curtain came down of the Iranian elections, the victory of reformist President Hassan Rohani, majority of votes in a free election with a turnout of 70% ,this time the elections came and all eyes tight to because everyone is trying to get out of the crisis of mistrust between Iran and its neighbors, which have evolved to meet with each other, particularly in the Gulf region.

Fortunately for Rohani is coming together of the reformists and moderate that supported him who tipped to reach for the presidency. As that the withdrawal of reformist candidate Mohammad Reza Aref has a profound effect on Rohani wining , also  it has been contributed dispersion among the hardliners and conservatives who felt arrogant because of their previous victories in municipal elections in 2002 and two sessions elections presidential, as well as winning parliamentary elections in 2012.

But the bad thing for the new president is a heavy legacy of problems left by his advance both at the local, regional or international, and the regional quo status today is different, there are three countries dropped their heads by the revolution of the Arab Spring Add the ongoing war in Syria that Iran is a key player with the support system Bashar, who has killed more than 100 thousand people so far.

At the local level Rohani faces three major challenges The first is minority rights, Iran have the great diversity of nationalities that inhabited, in different parts of Iran, there are different peoples have variety languages​​, cultures ,habits and values ​​ such as Kurds, Baluchis and Arabs as well as various doctrines. The basic structure of the Iranian people is according to the nationalities come as follows: Turkish nationalism by 24%, Kurdish nationalism by 7%, Arab nationalism by 3%, and Baloch nationalism by 2%. As is evident, these nationalities differ among themselves in the language, culture and doctrine;([1]). Is Rohani going to preserve the rights of minorities, especially the Sunni minority, which accounts for 10% of the population suffering from doctrinal discrimination and considered their areas of the poorest and deterioration regions compared to other regions and also there are more than a million Sunni Muslim in Tehran do not have Masjed of their own in Tehran and prevented yet of residence.

Iranian Nationalities are suffering  from deprivation political of their rights not only to the national Sunni compared nationalism Persian but includes most of the nationalities present in Iran; they do not have the right to learn their language, teaching the history of those nationalities in schools as they are deprived in political participation in the establishment of political parties and groups, as well as nationalities do not enjoy benefits that enjoyed by the Persian nationalism in the rest of the country ([2]).

The second issue, the new president is facing economic figures "catastrophic" result of the sanctions and poor planning and mismanagement of former President Ahmadi Nejad, surpassing inflation in March 2013 by 35% and oscillating unemployment rates around 13%, although economists’ independents Experts felt that the percentages are true for inflation and unemployment is closer to 40% and 20%, respectively. ([3]

At the same time, the data indicates the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to GDP fell by nearly 2% in 2012 and 1.2% so far in 2013. ([4])  

Western sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on the banking and energy sectors in Iran has played and led to collapse of the Iranian Rial and a sharp drop in the volume of imports, and an increase in the inflation rate, which reached to the highest level in 18 years.

The interior third issue is  political prisoners who were oppressed during the so-called «green revolution» in Iran, which was held after the vote on the election of 2009, which had seen rigging and re-where Ahmadi Nejad to power and have been arrested protests leaders and stay under house arrest, until now  a new president Rohani is still maker silence position on this issue, though, that Rohani promised during his campaign to work on release of political prisoners and said I will do my best for the release of these detainees.

Internationally, Rohani Faces a great challenge and a heavy legacy of the advance is nuclear file, but apparently that will continue to approach his predecessor in this aspect, especially since he confirmed that Western demands to halt uranium enrichment must stop because the Iranian nuclear program is a program that is entirely peaceful, and therefore does not constitute a violation of the international law there is no controversy in it. He demanded the U.S. administration to recognize Iran's nuclear rights, and said that the international sanctions on his country consider (unjust and unjustified). This apparently stuck to Iran's nuclear program.

Regionally, restore relations with its neighbors represents difficult challenge and especially since there are a lot of big problems that have emerged in the past two years Iran is playing a pivotal role in the Syrian crisis in support of the regime of Bashar al-Assad, while Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are supporting the armed opposition, and despite his statement to put an end to the war in Syria, but he returned and undone in his first press conference to survival of Assad until 2014! In reference to the end of the presidential term of President Assad.

Meanwhile he re-emphasized to re-relationship with Saudi Arabia and said he intends to convert rivalry that worsened in the recent period between the two countries to mutual respect, to promote the restoration of stability and security in the region, perhaps in reference to the conflict happening in Syria and Bahrain.

It seems, that the statements of the new Iranian president will be the mix policy of two schools Rafsanjani and Khatami, especially both of them present great support for Rohani for the presidency, Will be mated the dialogue of civilizations and social development and the economy liberalization?. And will begin what Rafsanjani ended and Khatami to walk slowly from the revolutionary society to civil society, which this project has seen a major setback with the advent of Ahmadi Nejad to power, he and many of the fundamentalist trend thought that revolutionary action is the foundation without clear and specific approach and that's what many reason of internal and external troubles to Iran during the eight years.

Regardless of the identity of the new president, he has to face serious fundamental issues concerning the future of Iran, western sanctions still strangling and represent a major obstacle to Iran towards economic prosperity. Also Iranian people are looking to tackle the problem of unemployment, inflation and high incidence of poverty and all need to be solution long time.

It is true that Rohani is diplomat man and Cleric, has long experience in security work and political, in addition to that mastered Arabic, English, German, French, and  Russian, and the remarks include a lot of promises to resolve internal and external problems that have accumulated during the eight years, but as it is known in Iran, it is not possible be done without the consent of Khamenei and Basij, Khamenei in Iran is the first authority, Even if Differed faces and names of heads of States in Iran.

In fact, Rohani will not fit what spoiled eight lean years of his predecessor, it is true that he has practical experience in dealing with sensitive issues through his term in national security, but seemingly, he has not the ability to overcome and encroachment on what can be decided by Khamenei who is in the latter commanding and the boss in all aspects of the Iran's policy whether internal or external, Rohani was not a candidates favorites with Khamenei compared with Saeed Jalili, known for his hard-line compatible with Iranian policy, as it is also known in Iran that military and strategic decisions monopolized the leadership of the Revolutionary Guards, not the president, So can Rohani overcome this challenge by moderation? The moderation needs to be a radical change than the rules applied by the system and the social and political culture of those who control matters in the end!


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