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What's Next for Iraq? What's Next for Iraq?
by Bohdan Yuri
2011-11-25 07:19:34
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Here’s a prediction.

Once U.S. forces leave Iraq there will be a power struggle. Call it whatever you wish: a civil war, secular, religious, or ethnic unrest.


I know, a fairly obvious prediction. One can already feel the caged animals anxious to strike for whatever cause feeds their souls. The ageless war cries of Allah and martyrdom will mix with the temper of pure anarchists and borderline freedom fighters defending or attacking either side of these perpetual borders.

What makes anyone think that there will be instant peace and harmony? The end result --- Iraq will eventually split into three autonomous regions.

The players, teams, and issues will be as simple as before: Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds --- and oil. Each supported by its own benefactors, unbalanced this time.

And while the new stir about Iran’s nuclear weapons program is the latest hyped issue the more pressing issue will be Iran’s role in securing emphatic control of Iraq’s southern base. And while Syria is in the throes of its own burgeoning spring it will be offering less support to its tribe.
(And don’t we already know that Syria is “next”?) And the Kurds, they just want their piece of the pie.

Preferably, the Iran situation will be dealt with through diplomacy but as we assume negativity we would hope that covert actions may already be in place. And if necessary, an open allied force of arms. (There may be no other option, I fear.) But Iran is still nearing its own spring as well, most likely occurring March 5 – 10, 2012. At which point the nuclear weapons issue may dismantle itself. So there’s a choice to be made.

Nevertheless, the eventual result for Iraq in 2012 will be division, as it had wanted to do from the beginning. This is inevitable (Ovi Magazine “The Inevitable”) --- even Joe Biden once thought it so. But this is now and at hand will be the concerning question, what Barack Obama will do when those embers are stirred into flames.

The first step should have already been taken months beforehand --- the Realization of the inevitable. Wherever there are bombs exploding, killing innocent souls, that place is a battlefield.  Look around, have the bombs stopped?

So let the citizens of Iraq form whatever actions will keep the peace. If the formation of three new nations will be the only way to keep the peace, why not? Perhaps in this instance we should allow the citizens who live on the land to fully decide their country’s fate. Immediately, the administration should be discussing the chance for such an occurrence with each potential faction.

But be forewarned and ready to react without delay, before the media commands a choice. Set up negotiations for such an event. Prearrange a ceasefire, enforced by airpower/drones whatever it takes but no combat troops. And we can’t take sides either; this is Iraq’s future, not ours. But here’s the change that follows these “talks”.

Each side will be presenting its case to the UN and eventually after the resolutions for a solution are drawn up the delegates will vote on them.

 Yes, the UN.

Perhaps it’s time to revive the original intent of the United Nations. A body of what should represent the soul of humanity instead of its petty and often times bloody disputes that blacken all of life into regret.

So, a potential solution: Iraq is divided? Three new countries are formed. Each will be equally sharing the wealth of the whole of former Iraq through a binding UN resolution. Thus building upon it resources and humanity.

As for Al-Qaida still meddling within these lands, that will be the time for each new regime to police its own territory. That’s when national service will bring pride and care to the rebuilding process.

This won’t happen overnight nor will the violence stop totally but at least this is a goal for positive results instead of furthering bloody power struggles. Granted it may never be resolved that simply, or at all. But if the citizens of Iraq want to give it a go --- why not let them. Why haven’t we even asked them? We can start by doing that, and then continue as an open dialogue through the UN.

Time has a way of working for you and at the same time against you. Barack Obama will have two short months to formulate some kind of agenda for the inevitable. Libya opened a window of cooperation possibilities, what worked and what did not. But most of all Obama will need to see the Libyan result as hope --- that anything is still possible.

Unfortunately the FOX Machine will promote the usual panic and “evidence” of White House blunders? But this is where the President might have to stand and deliver.

President Obama and Secretary Clinton should calmly set about beforehand to unite the United Nations for its greater role ahead. The United Nations might be ready to step into such a phase. Allow it to direct resolutions for a peaceful settlement in Iraq.

Barack Obama has only skimmed the edges of what history has offered him and it may even be a little too late for the true greatness that was once at his beck and call. All those blunders from the gutless wanderings of Congress and The President in the past have only succeeded in carrying that excess baggage to the present. Time must not be wasted again.

Therefore, President Obama will have to think fast, think smart, and find the Strength, Courage, and Wisdom to do it right.

As for the budget, Obama’s still not fully there in understanding…………….ANY cuts in healthcare programs for needy citizens --- heartless and gutless! That’s the Truth so dare to admit it.

Strength, Courage, and Wisdom --- Mr. President.


Good Luck!


   
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