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The Brexit omelette and Merkel's cooking The Brexit omelette and Merkel's cooking
by Thanos Kalamidas
2018-08-28 07:23:43
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there01_400The day where negotiations will be mission impossible and free jump without a parachute will start, is getting closer every single passing minute for Theresa May’s Brexit government and nobody seems to have the will to do anything about it. In fact it looks like the British political spectrum (Brexiteers and Remainers) wanted exactly that, the free fall; hoping that this will mean that while they won’t have to pay any of the millions Brussels demands they can also bully their way back into the EU market on their own rules. In other words, make an omelette without breaking any eggs or even better: have the whole cake and eat it too. 

And in the end this …might work. And you know why? Because while EU is constantly accusing Britain for unreasonable demands and absence of a plan, Brussels has absolutely no plan in case of a ‘no-agreement’ Brexit.

Schizophrenically, Brussels actions and behaviour have the taste of a bully who believes that UK’s need for access into the EU market will be so obvious and dispirit from day one that will lead the British economy immediately into recession and the people to the streets demanding a new referendum. The other thing Brussels secretly believes – and this is where the schizophrenic really comes – is that something will happen last minute and Brexit will vanish somewhere in the history books forever.

The downside of all this, is …Angela Merkel.

Europe is undoubtedly going through changes and the far-right, populist and xenophobic new Italian government is part of those changes. The transformation started in 2004 with the expansion of the Union for clear political reasons with clear political decisions and Brussels (mainly Germany) too keen to bend the rules in the name of the new currency. Countries like Poland, Hungary or Estonia joined a union without having fulfilled the criteria to the letter. Proof? There is no free press in today’s Hungary and no independent judicature in contemporary Poland. Counties like Croatia, Chez Republic and Latvia live in a virtual democracy. Europe is under a strange reconstruction around the euro-currency and after the Greek-crisis everything seems somehow fluid with most of the European countries trying to find their identity in a German dominated economic environment where Germany has the power and the control and democracy is not exactly a priority. The Europe for its people, its founders dreamt of, is lost into the Europe for its euro.  

Actually the Greek euro-crisis was the first to show EU handicaps. A logical first move would have been to drive Greece out of the eurozone so they could protect the currency from any contagious outbursts. They didn’t and that was not so much out of compassion or solidarity with the suffering partner but because there was not (and still there isn’t) a mechanism to deal with the possibility of excluding a member from the eurozone. As things are unveiling this minute – and nothing shows any kind of change – when you are in, you are in till the end doesn’t matter what. Another sign of EU’s founders arrogance. Something similar applies with Brexit, while too keen to open the doors for new members - even with serious issues – there is no mechanism for an exit.

Germany’s dream that started with the 1990’s unification for a major European power and economic dominance was fulfilled in the beginning of the 21st century when euro became the European DM (Deutsche Mark). The minute the economy of nineteen full member states, nine peripheral states and a few satellite states became directly dependant of the German Bank and the German economy while profiting the German state, the dream had come true.

The nightmare for some of the rest had just started when they found their national sovereignty hostage of the German finance ministry. Greece, again, was the first victim.

The upside to all this, is …Angela Merkel.

While all these show a kind of decadence, the same time Germany works as the safeguard for all 27 member states - including Britain this moment and while Britain wants to have good economic relationship with Greece, Italy and Slovenia for example, definitely hate to have a bad relationship with Germany. And when I say Germany, in this case I mean the entire front that supports Germany including Holland, Belgium, Denmark, Austria, Sweden and by necessity France.

Britain cannot afford (literally) a war with them while trying to establish a new trade situation with half the globe and the survival of the British pound in the contemporary currency wars. That’s why Theresa May hopes in a political agreement that will at least …leave some of the cake for later, and her only anticipation is that Angela Merkel will act.

Of course, she also understands that nothing will happen immediately. Brussels wants to teach UK and anybody else jealous of the Brexit, a lesson. The first months’ chaos in the boarders with all the export goods having to go through customs and their bureaucracy, the renewed fees and regulations plus visas and the necessary delays will freak out all British companies with exports to Europe which actually consist the 85% of the British manufacturers. Just look at the numbers, 44% of all UK exports went to EU while 53% of all imports were from EU. But Theresa was ready for that.

After all, May’s proposals to the EU that the Brexiteers successfully fought and dismissed was a starter for a negotiation targeting Angela Merkel and a political agreement that would be difficult with a lot of compromises but that could keep everybody happy. It didn’t work thanks to the hysterics from Boris Johnson and the British far right latest messiah, Jacob Rees-Mogg. A politician who is building a career on the populism of the Brexit.

However, the situation left May having to choose between leaving Brexit negotiation in free fall or battling the internal Tory populism that in long term can be catastrophic for both, the party and the country. She chosen Tory hoping that Merkel understands what she’s facing and when the time comes the dominatrix of Europe will unveil the right solution for all parties while she can survive and secure her seat in Downing Street.

In the meantime we just follow Boris show and Rees-Mogg’s theatrics waiting with Theresa for Angela to take over …Brexit.


       
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