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Eureka: What 2017 has in store
by Jay Gutman
2017-01-11 11:02:06
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prent01_400The United States has temporarily done away with Aristotelian logic and rhetoric to elect a leader that has more in common with the leaders of most countries. That is a leader who owns golf courses and real estate, who is concerned with his appearance and dress code, and who sticks to his initial positions and no amount of logic can make him change his mind. In the free world we are allowed to change our positions if we are convinced by logical arguments, but in most countries if the leader’s initial position is a “no” changing his mind would make him be a source of mockery for being insincere, or flip-flopping.

So here’s what the world can expect in these five key areas:

2017 in the military

Military negotiations could use their Aristotelian logic and long debates infused with logical arguments to negotiate military deals. Disagreements within the military could be stifled, and we might be looking at more group think within military organizations. That could mean longer conflicts, but less fractured and more harmonious debates on how to put an end to terrorist threats and bellicose threats. While I think it’s obnoxious that any president or military official would group all Muslims or Mexicans in the same category, the fact that they are grouped in the same category could mean that those groups can or will eliminate problem elements from within.

2017 in the environment

Replacing non-renewable fossil fuels with renewable energy can see some progress in 2017, while environmental catastrophes could be on the watch. Environmental security used to be a bottom up issue, that is small environmental organizations trying to lobby governments to take action on the environment, but this year could see a shift to top-down, meaning governments forcing people to adopt more environmental friendly policies.

2017 in politics

When we once thought that pompous politicians and public servants would be replaced with more docile and friendly politicians and public servants, proud and pompous politicians are on their way back. For the first time perhaps in history, during the last 10 year period organizations used logic to convince governments to take action. This year, it could be all about the pride, pomp, snobbery and sticking to the initial refusals rather than listening further and changing minds, as changing one’s mind can be a viewed as a sign of weakness among politicians.

2017 in society

2017 could be the year of big data. Shopping data, medical data, school data, work-related data, housing related data. Data might finally start being analyzed in ways that can help save lives, help ones’ career or help ones’ education. Kind of like statisticians in basketball or volleyball looking at data and advising the team to reinforce the left field or the right field.

2017 in the economy

One of the main factors that is slowing down the economy is transportation. The last 10 years transportation prices went up considerably, and aren’t going down any time soon. This means a lot of businesses are losing money when shipping their products to retailers and consumers. The other question is one of skills demanded from workers, that is jobs that demand skills that didn’t exist even 3 years ago, and that no one really got training for.

This was a brief overview of the upcoming challenges for 2016. Again the main highlight is that Western politics are adopting trends that were once only visible in East Asian politics, that is leaders who are rather proud and pompous, clean and groomed, but hard to convince with logic and rhetoric. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

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Emanuel Paparella2017-01-11 12:14:31
History and geo-politics by crystal ball. Intriguing stuff, but of course not too surprising once logic and science is thrown out the window and a classificatory system of perceiving reality is set up. Then one ends up with crystal balls and palm reading.

Emanuel Paparella2017-01-11 20:50:51
P.S. A postscript on the issue of the consistency of dishonest politicians. What made a narcissist such as Caligula appear unhinged to the Praetorian guards was not his consistency and persistence in defending wrong causes and ideas, doubling down, as we say, but his continual shift of positions, his eclecticism and continual improvisations and contradictions. This applies to our modern-day psychopath ready to take over he reins of power; he goes by the name of Donald Trump and to those who do not suffer from amnesia, he has been on every side of every issue imaginable. A few examples will suffice: In the year 2000 he said that “it is unacceptable that the number of uninsured Americans has risen to 42 millions” and as solution he proposed a single payer plan. In 2011 he called Obama care “a scheme devised by liberals to drag America closer to a ‘single payer’ systems” and he declared doubtful that by then there were 46 million Americans who did not have health coverage. He also declared that they did not need an increase in minimum wage and that climate change is an hoax. Around the same time (2000) he decried China aggressive military build up but later expressed puzzlement that 30,000 troops were still in South Korea. So, it's whatever is convenient at the moment; whatever the situation demands. In 1999 he proposed a surtax on the rich; ten years later he proposed that the tax rate be cut in half. First he was opposed to the war in Iraq, later he declared that he had a full proof plan to defeat ISIS but he will not reveal it because that would be showing one's cards. Life is making deals and those who can make deals are the winners; everybody else is a loser. In 1999 he quit being a Republican and became an independent, then he switched again and became a Democrat, then a Republican again in 2009. So the logic and consistence here, if indeed there is one, is to espouse whatever position plays publicly and increase one’s brand and fame; it is in fact publicity and fame that matters, not whether it is good or bad. So we can safely declare, without fear of contradiction, that his hair is the only consistent permanent feature than his political positions. I suppose that's better than nothing.

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