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Eureka: Nuclear deterrence
by Jay Gutman
2016-12-04 12:52:38
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When designing any security policy, you take what is called a “proximity approach.” You take direct neighbors into account, before taking the neighbors that live further away into account. You look at your borders, then look further from the borders. In that order.

nuclear01_400You then take five parameters into account: the military, the environment, politics, society and the economy into account. Basically in that order. You first want to look at your neighbors military ability, then the next thing you share with your neighbors are the clouds and the oxygen, so you want to take that into account. The people who have the most contacts with your neighbors will be the politicians broadly speaking (including national assemblies and big business owners) then society at large comes into contact with your neighbors. Finally, and in last position, economic exchanges occur with your neighbors.

Just as in getting out of debt, there are baby steps to getting to nuclear deterrence. The baby steps are the following.

Baby step one: agree on mutual military capability reductions.

Baby step two: agree on environmental cooperation

Baby step three: create asymmetric relations between politicians. In sum, elect politicians who like their neighbors and don’t scapegoat them.

Baby step four: Get society to view the neighbors favorably.

Baby step five: Get society to engage actively in economic exchanges with the neighbors.

When, as a politician, you are sitting with your neighbors at the negotiation table, and that the military or nuclear deterrence is the key issue, you want to start off negotiations with long round of talks on mutual military reduction capability. You want to make sure that the neighbors won’t attack you military and you want to comfort them in that you will not attack them militarily.

Once you agree on military capability reduction, you want to move to baby step two during that same negotiation phase: environmental cooperation. You want to agree to share clean clouds and oxygen with your neighbors and want to find creative arguments for that.

Once you find an agreement on military capability reduction and environmental cooperation, you may go back and forth between military capability reduction and environmental cooperation. Once you get positive agreements on those issues, you can move to baby step three: agreeing to elect politicians who will view the neighbors favorably and agree that criticizing or threatening the neighbor now lies in the politically incorrect realm, because of the ingrained military and environmental agreements.

Once such agreements have been reached in the military, environment and political environment, then you can negotiate agreements on the protection of your citizens on the other side of the border and social exchanges between neighbors, in the form of tourism, educational or cultural exchanges.

Then, in the very last position, and this is a negotiation item you want to save for the before last or last round of negotiations, you can start talking about economic cooperation. If you mention the economy before even talking about the military, you will scare your negotiation partner away.

In sum, you can’t really walk into the negotiation room insisting that you are wealthy and that you can provide economic wealth to the neighbor without providing basic security. You can’t walk into the negotiation room showing too many overt signs of wealth. Think about it this way rationally: if I’m an individual and share a room with another individual, I want security, then a good environment, then good and friendly relations, then I can start talking to him about cooperating in the business realm. You would be weird if you offered a person you’ve barely met to join as a business partner before the four other baby steps are met. This is a concise, hopefully creative guide to nuclear and military deterrence.

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