“History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” Mark Twain

Let´s suppose that we are involved in the experiment of a mad social scientist. He or she finds two pre-modern tribes in the Amazon rain forest situated close to each other. The scientist then provides technology for one of these tribes, which is eager to adopt it. Such a tribe may appear modern after a while, but under that veneer ancient belief systems would still be in place. Unfortunately, history itself supervised this particular trial in the period between 1850 and 1950.

Pre-modern tribes in Europe and Asia modernized their economies and weaponry without changing their internal belief systems. I am referring of course to Japan and Germany. Outside observers in those days thought these states to be modern, but they were anything but. Feudal societies with access to advanced technology then engaged in slavery, ethnic cleansing and genocide. Even today the state of Germany has a “Staatsoberhaupt” or chieftain, which makes me think of an Indian tribe.

Moreover, barely one generation ago, married women in the America, China and Europe were subjected to the whims of their husbands, who were (legally) masters of their wives. Fortunately, these parts of the world tackled issues like sexism, racism, poverty and homophobia in various degrees. The past decades were therefore marked by meaningful changes, especially in China which managed to lift 500 million people out of poverty, although our planet is far from perfect of course.

If we take a closer look at the world between 1850 and 1950 from this perspective, one cannot fully agree with the statement of Josef Stalin who once said that the 20th century entailed a clash between ideologies. Instead, the horrendous events in this time period can also be regarded as a transition phase in which societies like the US, Japan, China, Russia, Germany and Spain were engaged in a struggle between forces committed to feudalism and those opposed to it.  

On the northern hemisphere this led to massive destabilization. It began in the US in which agrarian states with a feudal mind-set engaged their industrialized and slightly more modern counterparts on the issue of slavery. The result: civil war. In the same time period feudal Japan improved its industry and weaponry during the Meiji period in order to secure a place in the world. At the beginning of the 20th century several ancient empires furthermore collapsed in China, Russia and Central-Europe.

Afterwards, the void was filled by extremists. They presented societies with two choices. Either go back to a fabled Golden Age, which was supposed to last for a thousand years, or take the Great Leap forward by adopting modernization programs. These programs were implemented regardless the consequences for the populace. While Central-Europe and Japan regressed back into the Middle Ages between 1920 and 1945, China and Russia applied forced modernization during the 20th century.

If history holds any clues for the future, one can say that the world of today is similar in many respects. On a line beginning in Indonesia going up to India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and ending in Syria, we are witness of the struggle between feudalism and modernity once again. In Syria the line splits into two. One of these lines enters the so-called spring revolution countries and the other one plunges into the heart of Africa. Along this new fault line societies are growing increasingly unstable.

Although there are regions which seem to be advancing, modern appearing hubs, like Dubai or Bangalore, are still part of societies in which violence against women is rampant. The (legal) status of women over there is similar to standards employed in Europe fifty years ago or worse, not to mention the attitudes of people in these regions towards gays, minorities and other religions. And then there is North Korea with its king worshipped as a god by the populace like the pharaohs of old.

This fault line saw two genocides happening so far. In Rwanda one tribe nearly eradicated another one at the end of the 20^th century. And a country-wide reform program implemented by Pol Pot and his followers led the world to witness the horrors of the killing fields. In Iraq today cleansing has just begun, which is extensively documented by the perpetrators themselves. Over the past months pictures appeared in the media reminding many of us of the of Nazi death squads in Eastern-Europe.

All these developments lead us to the question what the 21st century will be about. I think it is safe to assume the world will not see the end of history that was proclaimed by Francis Fukuyama. Nor will there be a clash between civilizations as Samuel Huntington predicted. What seems to be in store for us will be a continuation of the struggle between feudalism and modernity in new theatres in the world under different circumstances, which will lead to increased instability, violence and extremism.

Fact is that more and more societies in our world are entering a transition phase due to access to advanced technology, rapid economic development and urbanisation. This especially holds true for Central-Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, India and South-East Asia. If we do not do anything to assist people in these parts of the world to deal with this kind of change, it is likely that many will fall prey to a similar darkness that plagued the shores of Japan, China, Russia and Europe over sixty years ago.       

The underlying problem is outdated societal software in the form of tribalism and/or feudalism, which is incompatible with hardware like advanced technology and complex economic systems. Forces committed to feudalism therefore oppose the notion of human dignity and seek out to cleanse societies in order to attain purity, whatever that means for those plagued by this particular form of madness such as Anders Breivik or those murderers in black roaming Iraq these days.